What happens next for Josh Giddey?

Giddey's third season in the league has been tumultuous to say the least

Josh Giddey’s 2022-23 season was a year of growth for the Aussie and his ability was evident in the Thunder’s play-in victory over the Pelicans. Giddey almost had a 30-point triple double in what was a close, hard-fought win for the Thunder. More than that, Josh played with such confidence and clarity of thought.

Fast-forward to February 2024 and the wheels have come off the wagon for Giddey. The focused, whip-smart decision making has been replaced with paralysing indecision and ill-advised shot attempts.

In the Thunder’s game against Sacramento, Giddey played only 20 minutes with Coach Daigneault to rely more heavily on the likes of Kenrich Williams and Aaron Wiggins. Where did it all go wrong for Josh?

It is important to acknowledge that Giddey is 21 years old and that development is not always linear for players particularly as opposing teams move their name up the scouting report. If you look at someone like Lu Dort, it has taken five seasons to round the rough edges off his game and even then, Dort’s on-court value waxes and wanes with his 3-point percentage.

With all of this being said, the issues within Josh’s game cannot just be put down to court time. One of Giddey’s biggest weaknesses is his inconsistent outside jumper. Josh is a streaky shooter and when his jumper does not go in, the opposing team will sag off and make the Thunder play 4v5.

The Thunder thrive on good spacing and playing five-out, when Giddey is on the court without the ball in his hands, this approach is much more difficult to realise. When Giddey does get the ball on the perimeter, he has two options. 

Option one is to put up a jumper that he has little confidence in and pray the ball drops through the net.

Option two is to drive towards the painted area, struggle to get to the rim and then chuck up a contested floater.

Neither option inspires much confidence and I think this is where there is a vicious cycle for Josh Giddey. Giddey is a confidence player who is best when the ball is zipping around and he has the opposing team on toast. 

It is impossible for Giddey to build any sort of confidence when his offensive game is completely nullified.

The confidence issue is compounded by the fact that every game matters for the Thunder now and the expectations of the fanbase have shifted significantly. Oklahoma City are in a dogfight for first place in the Western Conference and have a real chance of making a deep postseason run. Any slumps will be scrutinised and Giddey is currently playing below what we know he is capable of.

The other compounding factor are the accusations towards Josh regarding his personal life. Consider this, Giddey is likely receiving abuse and slurs every single day from individuals who claim to be ‘fans’ of his. It must be demoralising to wake up and read unpleasant things about you every single morning.

The number one question for the Thunder’s coaching staff is how do they revitalise Josh Giddey’s confidence? This is a hard question to answer because the Thunder do not have the luxury of meaningless minutes for Giddey to play his way back into some sort of rhythm. Bringing Giddey’s game back to life has to occur with the team’s structure and offensive system.

The Gordon Hayward trade has opened up space in the Thunder’s rotation. Tre Mann, who was beloved by his teammates, and Vasilije Micic were sent to Charlotte for Hayward. Two shot-creators were sent out in the trade and Coach Daigneault will need to find a way of matching the production of Micic and Mann with what is left on the roster.

Moving Giddey to the reserve unit and making him the primary initiator would mitigate that loss. Giddey would have the opportunity to have the ball in his hands more often and dictate play more often.

In the reserve unit, Giddey would have the chance to play alongside Kenrich Williams and Aaron Wiggins, two players who he has excellent chemistry with. Last season, Williams and Wiggins converted at 50% and 47% field goal percentage, respectively, off passes from Giddey.

Both of these players fit more neatly with Giddey’s playstyle. Giddey thrives as a passer when the defense moves from side to side and passing windows open up. Josh is not the sort of player who knifes his way to the middle of the painted area and then kicks the ball out to an open shooter. A cutter like Wiggins who will sneak backdoor for an easy finish at the rim is super valuable as a passing option for a playmaker like Giddey.

This decision cannot be taken lightly by the coaching staff. Reducing a player’s minutes in a contract year and moving them to a role that is regarded with less prestige is a loaded gun. The intent may be to boost Giddey’s confidence but the opposite could occur, Giddey could view the move as a demotion and check out mentally.

Giddey’s play is at its lowest ebb, a move to the bench may rekindle his spirit and bring out the fire in him. The guy who led Australia valiantly during the World Cup is still there but he needs a new challenge to bring the best out of him.