Whale Watch Part I: An evaluation of player targets for the Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have a promising core, an abundance of assets and cap space. Is it time to take a big swing and land the sort of player who can elevate the team to the next tier?
The Thunder’s season ended with a loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves and the team went into the offseason in a hopeful place. Oklahoma City overachieved relative to expectations on a team and individual level. Nobody thought that the Thunder would get anywhere near the postseason and the idea of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being named to All-NBA first team seemed unrealistic to say the least.
The next step for the Thunder is identifying areas where the team can improve and more importantly how the team’s development can be achieved. For most of the Thunder’s history, free agency has not been a place where Presti has picked up talent.
Oklahoma City is not a glamour market and the Thunder have struggled to get solid free agents through the door. The best free agent signings in franchise history have been Patrick Patterson, Nerlens Noel and Isaiah Joe.
It is also worth noting that the Thunder have operated in the luxury tax for most of the team’s tenure in the NBA and the renumeration that could be offered to players was strictly controlled by CBA rules.
Going into this offseason, Oklahoma City will have $37m in cap space to use on free agent signings and player retention. Dario Saric is a likely candidate to be brought back given his impact in limited minutes for the Thunder last season and his contract will likely be around current value ($9m). This would still leave the Thunder with $28m to spend, a decent number but not quite a max slot. This is before any rookies are signed to their contracts after the Draft.
The probability of the Thunder landing free agency signings has swung a little more in OKC’s favour. The new, prospective CBA makes it more difficult for teams over the second tax apron to sign free agents to deals commensurate with their value.
Moreover, it is also worth noting that the Thunder have developed a good reputation among NBA players over the course of the last 15 years. The Thunder are a well-run operation and a fair few players have commented on this fact. Dario Saric, Kemba Walker and Al Horford are three of the most recent examples of players praising the Thunder.
Well-run organisations are not all that common in the NBA and players will want to play in an environment that is stable. If you look at Philadelphia in the ‘Process’ years, they had to continually overpay veterans to get them to play for the club. The same goes for Sacramento, there is a reason why the Kings ended up paying Zach Randolph $24m over two years in the twilight of his career.
In this article, I have looked at all three avenues of acquisition (trade, draft and free agency) and have come up with a list of targets that the Thunder should consider.
Free Agents:
Cameron Johnson:
Restricted Free Agent, 6’8, 15/4/2 with 40 3FG%
Cameron Johnson’s rookie deals has now come to an end and the forward hits restricted free agency after failing to agree a contract extension with the Phoenix Suns last season. The situation for Johnson is different now to what it was a year ago. Cam finished the season on the Brooklyn Nets after being involved in the Kevin Durant trade.
The Nets were bounced out of the playoffs in the first round by the Philadelphia 76ers and have entered the offseason with a lot of questions. During the KD-Kyrie years, Sean Marks’ mandate was to win and channel resources towards building a championship-level team.
The aim of the Nets’ front office is harder to decipher. Brooklyn cannot afford to completely tank as they will not control their own first round pick until 2028. Houston will receive two Brooklyn firsts in 2024 and 2026 while maintaining the right to swap picks in 2025 and 2027.
Brooklyn have incoming picks from Phoenix and Philadelphia to build with but they have a roster with a limited ceiling at present. Mikal Bridges is a high-level building block but the rest of their roster is not so tidy. Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris are both very good complementary pieces on elite teams but they are highly overpaid. Royce O’Neal and Dorian Finney-Smith are tradable assets who will likely garner decent returns. Ben Simmons’ contract is an albatross on their books.
There are interesting young players on the roster like Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe who have promise and fit within a rebuilding timeline alongside Mikal Bridges.
While Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson are similar in age, 26 and 27 respectively, their contract situations are different. Bridges is on a deal that will pay him $70m over the next three seasons. Cam Johnson hits restricted free agency in the summer and will prove costly for the Nets to re-sign. Johnson previously turned down a four-year $72m contract from the Suns as his representation believes that Cam can get a better deal in restricted free agency.
Oklahoma City would have the space to offer Johnson a deal worth $20m a year and I think it would be a good signing for the Thunder to make. Cam addresses two of the Thunder’s key weaknesses, versatility on defense and shooting.
Oklahoma City finished the season shooting 35.6% from downtown as a team which was good for 17th in the league. The Thunder were largely unremarkable from beyond the arc and relied on inside scoring for most of the team’s points. With finishers like Shai, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey on hand, that approach makes a lot of sense but it is not perfect.
Against teams who have stout front-courts and well-timed help defense, the Thunder’s offense would stutter to a halt. In those situations, a team relies on outside shooting to relieve pressure but the Thunder did not necessarily have the sort of reliable options who could act as a safety valve. Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey have both shown promise as shooters but have proven to be streaky from deep.
Adding Johnson would give Coach Daigneault a career 40% three-point shooter who will reliably drain looks from downtown on decent volume. Johnson has averaged 5.6 three-point attempts per game for his entire career. His efficiency and volume would be comparable to Isaiah Joe’s shooting and it is clear how much Joe’s floor-spacing benefitted the Thunder.
It is easy to characterise Johnson as just a 3&D forward but his game has developed beyond that point. Johnson has grown into being a shot-creator who can knock shots from all three levels. Last season, he feasted on opportunities when he could catch the ball at the perimeter and attack a collapsed defense. The catch-and-go has become a mainstay of his offensive game which means that defenses can no longer just run him off the arc and take him out of the game.
His shooting numbers across the board from last season are very pleasing to read.
0-3 ft - 69.1%
3-10ft - 43.5%
10-16ft - 42.9%
16-3P - 45.9%
3P - 40.4%
His shot diet is mostly comprised of three-pointers (53.8% last season) but Johnson has made real strides in getting to the second level and knocking down shots. His play style is somewhat comparable to Danilo Gallinari, they are both forwards who work ‘outside-in’. Like Gallo, Johnson uses the threat of his jumper to draw the defense and drive towards the basket.
The Thunder played one system on defense and it was very good at getting results in the regular season. Oklahoma City ended up 13th in defensive efficiency while not having a rim protector available on the roster. The strategy of dropping the big back and having clockwork rotations across the four perimeter players worked well.
However, Oklahoma City ran into issues in the postseason. The Thunder quickly found out that sinking down to the painted area and relying on athleticism has its flaws. The big issue was that the Thunder could not control space well enough to limit inside scoring from Towns and outside shooting from the likes of Taurean Prince.
Johnson is rock-solid on defense and has showed skill in guarding two or even three positions. He does occasionally struggle with quick point guards but that is par for the course for most forwards.
His rebounding needs work but I do not think this would be a massive issue on the Thunder. Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kenrich Williams are all above average rebounders who can make up the difference.
A Cam Johnson deal may not be sexy but I think it would be an excellent signing for the Thunder.