The Case for the Oklahoma City Thunder selecting Rayan Rupert in the 2023 NBA Draft

Rupert is a talented wing who could provide the Thunder with more steel

Guest Article written by Ben Glover

My 21-year-old fell to the ground laughing when McKinley Wright IV's 3-point shot failed to find its target,  sending his 46-year-old father running and screaming through our rural Alaskan home.  

Only a casual fan of the NBA, he could not fathom the cathartic release that came with sticking it to Justin Termine and knowing the gut-wrenching portion of the rebuild is over.

Having recovered from my euphoria, it is time to turn to the draft.  This season’s playoff run is one-and-done, Oklahoma City has a big offseason to look forward to.

The NBA draft is a lot like shopping in Alaska.  The customer that walks in with a list of what they ‘have to have” will spend twice as much as they would “downstate.”  Similarly, when a team must have Joe Barry Carroll,  it comes at the low, low price of Robert Parish and Kevin McHale.  

In either endeavor, it is helpful to be flexible and prepared. George Clooney tells Brad Pitt in Oceans 11 when “that perfect hand comes along, you bet big, and then you take the house.”  A smart customer does not pay $9.39 for salsa that costs $4.99 at any Giant.  They wait for Alaska Commercial to over-order and then buy 3 at $5.89 each!

The Thunder are the rare team to have a lottery pick, #12 (6 nothing unlikely happens during the May 16th lottery), without any glaring needs (or at least none that Chet Holmgren should not address.) They also have depth with 8 ready NBA players, Chet, and one encouraging project already on the roster (Dieng).

The Thunder have only two choices that make sense. The first choice is to draft someone who is so good right and will force themselves into the rotation, likely at the expense of JWill or Wiggins.

Unfortunately, neither Wemby, Scoot, Miller, nor Walker will be available for the Thunder barring a small miracle. Two realistic trade-up targets are Anthony Black and Taylor Hendricks. Both make sense for the Thunder in the abstract.

However, neither is likely to get the minutes they need in order to develop. The player taken in the Draft must match the Thunder's context.

Forcing those developmental minutes may make the team worse and reduce opportunities for others that need the court time to reach their potential. Given that the Thunder's roster is very young, this is a real concern.

The second choice would be to select a player whose presence will not demand any minutes in the short term. This brings us to the curious case of Rayan Rupert.

Rupert is a French forward who currently represents New Zealand Breakers in the NBL. His father played Euroleague basketball and his sister won a championship in the WNBA last season as part of the Las Vegas Aces. Rupert also attended INSEP, a school whose alumni include Tony Parker and Boris Diaw.

Oklahoma City have previous with both INSEP and NZ Breakers. Ousmane Dieng played for the Breakers before being drafted by the Thunder. Theo Maledon, Olivier Sarr, Jaylen Hoard and Ousmane Dieng are all players who attended INSEP and then subsequently played for the Thunder.

For the uninitiated Thunder fan, he brings Thabo Sefolosha’s body (6’7” tall with a 7’3” wingspan) with Grand Theft Alvarado’s pesky approach to defense. His steals and deflections are matched perhaps only by Ausar Thompson. No Ceilings NBA has a tremendous video detailing these talents.

https://youtu.be/nenNZPdsTPE

On offense, he is a good decision-maker with a decent handle and is willing to drive to the basket. However, he is currently an inefficient offensive player due to his shot (an ugly .369/.313). Moreover, Rupert lacks the ability to play well through contact. This is also an issue that Ousmane Dieng struggled with pre-draft and the Thunder have made strides in aiding Ousmane's aggression.

He is not a hopeless case as his 78% free throw percentage is encouraging and his shot does not appear broken. He will also be one of the youngest players in the draft, not turning 19 until May 31st. He will have to get stronger to be successful in the NBA, but he is younger than Dieng was at this point last year and still has plenty of time for his body to develop.

This opens a unique opportunity for the Thunder. While he is already a quality NBA defender, he is so young and his offense is so underdeveloped that a full year in the G-League is the logical next step for him.

Running point for the Blue will allow him to continue to develop the skills he will need to maximize his chances for success in Thunder’s drive-heavy, five out system. It is essentially an old-style draft and stash selection except for the fact that Rupert will be entirely within the Thunder’s orbit.

The keen observer will say that he shares several traits with the aforementioned Anthony Black and Ausar Thompson, except that Black and Thompson are better players right now. They would be right but this is where the value proposition comes into play.

On Tankathon.com Thompson is currently mocked at #5 and Black at #7. If you want to pay $9.39 for your salsa (or in this case surrender multiple lightly protected first round picks) that opportunity will probably present itself.

Or the Thunder can take a little more risk, cook with what is on sale and take advantage of the situation. Rupert is currently mocked at #18. The Thunder might even trade down a few spots and still get their man.

Rupert is not for everyone. Teams that are win-now or already have several defensive stoppers, or lack quality depth are not going to be a good fit. But the Thunder’s depth, focus on development, and play style make them uniquely suited for a prospect like Rupert.

Draft day is June 22nd. When Presti heads over to the Barclays Center he should consider finding a green Post-In note and writing “Vonte Mack Rayan Rupert no matter what.”