Questions for the Oklahoma City Thunder heading into training camp

The next few weeks will provide a lot of insight into how the upcoming season should play out

The Thunder have returned for media day and the season has now been officially kicked off. It is a season in which many have predicted the Thunder to perform well and over-perform expectations. JJ Redick of The Old Man and the Three and Tim MacMahon of ESPN have both gushed about Oklahoma City in recent weeks.

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It is clear for the first time in four years that the Thunder have re-entered the national conversation. The change in narrative from what feels like a lifetime ago is nothing short of amazing. Four years ago, Westbrook went to Houston and a lot of pundits nationally expected the Thunder to wander through the wilderness hunting for talented young players.

The rebuild, overseen by Sam Presti, has happened swiftly and Oklahoma City are already ahead of the timeline. The Thunder have their franchise cornerstone in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a group of high-potential young players who may yet prove to be future All-Stars.

With all that being said, the Thunder have questions to be answered over the next few weeks and those answers will play a huge part in dictating how the season will play out. Training camps is the only team where Coach Mark Daigneault will have an unbroken period of time to teach his concepts and bring the team up to speed on any tactical innovations.

Once the season starts, team practices are infrequent and it becomes a lot harder for the coaching staff to emphasise the finer nuances of Daigneault’s system.

Who gets cut from the roster?

Over the course of the offseason, Oklahoma City have slowly trimmed their roster down from 21 players to 18 but there are still three further roster spots that need to be cut in order to comply with current CBA regulations. A team is allowed to carry 15 guaranteed main roster contracts and 3 two-way deals into the regular season. The Thunder have 18 players contracted to the main roster and 3 two-way deals at present.

The decision of who to cut is more difficult than it has been in previous years. This is arguably the first time in the Thunder’s recent history where the team is loaded with solid role players and promising young players who may deserve another season wearing Thunder Blue.

Davis Bertans seems like an obvious candidate to be cut but Bertans’ $17m contract would be useful salary cap filler in trade scenarios. It is a midsized deal that would provide the Thunder with a lot of flexibility when it comes to matching salaries and getting a trade package to match the league’s requirements.

Moreover, Bertans is a superb outside shooter who fills a need on the Thunder’s roster. He shot 39% on 3-point attempts last season and is a legit movement shooter who is capable of knocking down shots while off-balance. Davis is a one-dimensional big who does not bring much in the way of rebounding or interior defense but he fits a situational need.

In Coach Daigneault’s tenure, the Thunder have always thrived with a floor-spacing big on the floor. Mike Muscala became an integral part of the Thunder’s system because his gravity drew defenders out of the lane and created space for Shai to drive into.

Muscala also came to the Thunder with a reputation of leaky interior defense but he gradually improved on the defensive end of the floor and I would argue that Coach Daigneault’s system contributed a lot to Muscala’s improvement.

In screen and roll actions, the pivot sits in a deep drop while the man defender fights over the screen and sticks with his assignment. The pivot only has to think about occupying space near the basket and staying vertical. Daigneault’s system makes the game simple for the 5 and allows them to focus attention onto a few duties rather than overburdening the big with tasks.

I could easily see Daigneault approach Bertans in the same way. A lineup of Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace and Ousmane Dieng would have excellent ball pressure and take pressure off Bertans whenever he anchors the defense.

The most logical cut would be Victor Oladipo. Oladipo’s return to Oklahoma City was a nice story in the offseason but I fear that his return may be short-lived. Oladipo suffered a patellar tendon tear in April and missed the rest of the season for the Miami Heat. It was another cruel blow to a player who has suffered such an injury-hit career since he left Oklahoma City in 2017.

Torn patellar tendons are injuries that come with a lengthy recovery time. Andre Roberson suffered a torn patellar tendon and it took him more than two years to recover back to playing health.

Unfortunately, Oladipo’s injury and the low probability of an on-court return this season make a likely cut for the Thunder front office.

Jack White is a possible cut from the roster. The Aussie was signed this summer on a guaranteed two-year deal after White’s contract with the Denver Nuggets ran out. White is 6’7 and comes with the reputation of being a physical 3&D wing. He shot 41% in the G League last season and has shown an aptitude for finishing plays off cuts to the basket.

White is not an on-ball creator but the Thunder are more than fine in the playmaking department and will have creators who can set up plays for White. He could be another useful wing option to have alongside Aaron Wiggins but training camp will be useful in establishing his current level.

If White fails to impress, I could see the Thunder cutting him and offering him a G League deal with the Blue. Oklahoma City have previously done this and it would be a good way of keeping White in a place where his development can be tracked more closely.

The other four potential cuts are Aaron Wiggins, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Tre Mann. Out of these four, my preference would be to keep JRE and Wiggins. Both players have generally performed when called upon and have occasionally delivered vital contributions.

With that being said, it does feel that Aaron Wiggins is a forgotten man and is not entirely trusted by the Thunder coaching staff despite his impressive play. In theory, Wiggins is the ideal wing to complement Shai. Aaron shot 39% on threes and 57% on twos last season while playing energetic, harrying defense.

His play warranted more playing time last season and it does not make sense why he played so sparingly last season.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl’s injury record is spotty and he had a rough second season in the league. JRE was plagued by an ankle injury for a long duration of last season and lost his place in the rotation to Jaylin Williams. When JRE eventually returned from injury, his play did not match what we saw in his rookie season.

Robinson-Earl looked listless at times on defense and he did not seem to play with the same vigour that earned him rave reviews in his first season in the league. Robinson-Earl’s value proposition is his outside shooting and ability to guard 4s and 5s. He just did not provide that last year and finds himself on the hot seat.

At the very least, JRE has earned himself a chance to earn minutes in training camp and prove to Daigneault that he deserves the backup center spot over Jaylin Williams. I would not cut him just yet, an injury-hit season should not mean he is immediately written off.

Out of the Thunder’s recent draft picks, Tre Mann is most likely to be cut. In his first two NBA seasons, we have seen Tre dominate against G League competition but struggle heavily on an NBA floor. He has occasionally put together big, efficient scoring nights but those moments have been few and far between.

Too often, Tre has inefficient scoring nights where he does not contribute on either end of the floor. His minutes declined over the course of the year and his spot in the rotation was eventually supplanted by Isaiah Joe.

I have no doubt that Tre Mann will improve and find a place in the league. Scoring guards who can fill it up will always have a spot on an NBA roster. I have my doubts on whether Tre Mann is the right fit on the current Thunder roster. Oklahoma City need reliable outside shooting and playmaking more than they need microwave scoring off the bench at the moment. The likes of Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe and Vasilije Micic just make more sense for the Thunder.

Aleksje Pokusevski was not initially on my list of potential cuts but his recent ankle sprain has changed the calculus to some extent. The Thunder have reported that Pokusevski’s injury will be reassessed in six weeks to determine his return to play. He will miss all of training camp and the first few weeks of the season.

He will not have the opportunity to demonstrate his improvement to the coaching staff and make a case for why he deserves nightly minutes in what is a crowded spot on the roster.

Injuries and uneven play have made Pokusevski’s fourth season in the NBA crucial. To date, we have only seen flashes of Pokusevski’s full potential and there have been very few solid, consistent runs of play. With every pinpoint assist, there has been a puzzling turnover.

Last season, I really enjoyed watching him swat shots away and defend every position on defense. It felt like a real evolution of his game and you could see his potential as an elite tier shot blocker but his season was cut short by a tibial fracture. He stopped playing ball in late December and did not feature at all in 2023.

Over the first three months of the season, the Thunder went 15-18 with a -1.0 Net Rating. In the following 46 games, Oklahoma City went 25-21 with a +3.1 Net Rating. From the turn of the year, the Thunder were ranked 11th in Net Rating league-wide.

The raw numbers would indicate that the Thunder improved as a team with Pokusevski off the court and that Pokusevski’s individual improvement did not correlate to team success.

Aleksej is a unique player, there are very few players with his combination of size, switchability and playmaking but there has not been any consistency in his game over the last three years. He lacks the nous for team play and has not established a good passing chemistry with any of his teammates apart from Shai.

It might be time for the Thunder to cut their losses and focus attention on other prospects like Ousmane Dieng whose potential is more tangible to realise.

Is it time to consolidate the roster and make a splash?

As a general manager, Sam Presti is renowned for pulling off trades where the Thunder have landed star level talent with very little cost. The Carmelo Anthony trade in 2017 involved the Thunder giving up Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott and a second round pick.

While Carmelo’s player value had declined due to his conflicts with Phil Jackson and concerns about his lack of defensive effort, Anthony was still viewed to be an All-Star level player who could get a bucket from anywhere on the basketball court. At the time, his acquisition was viewed as a home run play by the Thunder front office and Presti received a lot of praise for his work in the trade market.

The Carmelo deal played out in the typical Presti fashion. Oklahoma City waited patiently for interest to die down and then got a deal done silently while every other suitor was weighing up their offers.

The Thunder front office leaned on Troy Weaver’s relationship with Carmelo to persuade him that Oklahoma City would be a viable landing spot. As soon as Anthony consented for the Thunder to be added to his acceptable trade destinations list, Sam Presti exploited the Knicks’ lack of leverage and sent them cap filler.

Patience and quiet competence are hallmarks of the Thunder’s operating approach, the Melo trade is merely the best example of the last ten years. The history is pretty clear, Sam Presti will not rush into anything without considering all perspectives first.

Throughout the offseason, Oklahoma City have been linked to the likes of Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo but those links have been tenuous to say the least. Lillard never met the Thunder’s timeline and Giannis now seems likely to stay in Milwaukee.

There is a decent list of star talent who could be available for the right price in the short-term. Pascal Siakam’s future in Toronto has looked precarious over the last six months as Masai Ujiri assesses the roster and works out a direction in which to take the Raptors. Siakam can hit free agency next summer and so any trade for him would be a highly-risky proposition.

The Thunder have taken such risks in the past with Paul George and it did pay off with George signing a new long-term deal in 2018 but it is a difficult spot to be in. No GM wants to approach free agency and face the possibility of losing a star level talent for nothing.

The aforementioned Embiid could be a trade target next summer if Philly flame out again and Harden hits the open market with no intention of returning to the 76ers. Quietly, Daryl Morey has increased the age profile of the team and the 76ers are now loaded with veteran role players on short contracts.

Without a running mate who can facilitate and create from the perimeter, Philadelphia would have little chance at winning a championship and it would make logical sense to move to a timeline in which Tyrese Maxey is built around.

Out of all available All-Star level players, Jerami Grant is an appealing option. Grant, who previously played for the Thunder, signed a five-year deal worth $160m with the Blazers in July under the impression that Lillard would be on the roster for the forseeable future.

Now that Lillard has been traded and Joe Cronin has moved to a development focus, Grant is on the trading block. Since Jerami left Oklahoma City in 2019, his game has grown hugely. His role in Denver was to guard the best player on the opposing team and Grant had to learn how to contain the likes of LeBron James and Kevin Durant.

Grant then spent two seasons in Detroit where he did not win many games but it was a blank canvas for him to work on his game. The Pistons’ roster situation gave Grant plenty of scope to work on his ball-handling and become more proficient in breaking down a defense off the bounce. Last season was all about becoming a high-volume, efficient bomber from downtown for Grant.

At the age of 28, Grant is a legitimate 3&D forward who can put the ball on the floor and guard the opposing team’s best wing. He would bring size, shooting and leadership to what is still a young Thunder team. Grant, Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander across three positions on defense would be nasty.

The best part about Grant’s status as a trade candidate is that he has a long contract and would not be a flight risk in the immediate term. Unlike some of the other potential targets, the Thunder would have time to build the roster correctly instead of having to rush the team-building process in order to appease players.

These are just two of the questions for the front office and Coach Daigneault to work out over the coming weeks. It will not be easy but training camp is the ideal opportunity to gather data and draw conclusions.