Draft Lottery Implications for the Oklahoma City Thunder
The uncertainty at the top of the Draft puts the Thunder in a position to move up
The Draft Lottery on Wednesday was largely defined by one man. Victor Wembanyama is one of the most eagerly awaited prospects in recent years and it is not difficult to see why. Wembanyama is a genuine unicorn who raises a team’s ceiling tenfold.
26 years after landing Tim Duncan in the 1997 NBA Draft, San Antonio struck gold again and landed the first pick. It is a momentous turn of luck for the Spurs but their fortune was not well-received by other franchises.
Detroit dropped to the fifth pick and Ben Wallace sat on the podium ashen-faced as their chance at the generational big man faded. Ime Udoka grimaced as Houston fell to the fourth pick in a Draft where there appear to be only two sure-fire future All-Stars, Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.
On the other end of the spectrum, Brandon Roy grinned as Portland moved up to the third pick and new life was breathed into the Damian Lillard era. It is a trade chip which gives Joe Cronin, Blazers’ GM, one final chance to build a winner around Lillard.
Houston falling and Portland moving up are massive for the Thunder. Oklahoma City control Houston’s first round in the next three drafts and the front office would have been happy to see the Rockets miss out on Victor.
Houston ending up with the fourth pick will also create indecision for Rafael Stone at a time where he is under pressure to win immediately. Stone has presided over a team that has won 17, 20 and 22 games in each of the last three seasons. For all of that losing, Houston have little to show for their suffering.
Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr are both high-potential young athletes but neither of them is the sort of culture-defining franchise leader that their colleagues in Detroit and Orlando boast. Detroit have their star in Cade and Troy Weaver is assembling a roster to complement Cunningham. Paolo Banchero is the Magic’s centrepiece and they already have Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter Jr to feed off him.
Houston do not have that player at the moment and Stone himself is in a tricky spot. Tilman Fertitta is notorious for being obsessed with winning and has been impulsive as an owner. Fertitta negotiated a four year, $160m extension with Chris Paul and instantly regretted giving such a huge contract to a player in his twilight years.
He then pressed Daryl Morey, Houston’s GM, to trade Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook despite his GM’s concerns. Paul was revitalised in Oklahoma City and was every inch the leader that Houston lacked. Chris’ play was spectacular and he led the Thunder to a postseason berth when nobody thought that was possible. Westbrook flamed out in Houston and was dealt to the Wizards in 2020, an embarrassing end to the James Harden era.
It is clear from his actions that Fertitta is impatient and this might explain why Stone seems intent on win-now moves this offseason. From what has been reported, it appears that a return to Houston is on the cards for James Harden. Harden’s return would improve the franchise’s short-term outlook and I am curious to see if Stone engages in a similar win-now move with the fourth pick.
Taking one of Wembanyama or Henderson is a no-brainer, it would be harder for Stone to justify why someone like Jarace Walker or Brandon Miller would be right for a franchise trying to win in the short-term. In a situation where there is no clear answer, trading the pick to get a decent player and future picks that may land in a less murky draft might be his best option. It will be very important to watch what Houston is doing as it could seriously influence the Thunder’s future.